Arsonist as Firefighter

Tactics of Organizational PoliticsTiming and MomentumA tactic to guard against

Someone who controls an opaque system causes or allows a crisis in it, then arrives with a ready fix bundled with the reorganization, budget, or authority they already wanted.

An example

On a Monday in July, a regional airline's crew scheduling system failed during a thunderstorm recovery and stranded 3,000 passengers overnight. By Wednesday the director who ran operations systems had given the chief operating officer a full remediation plan: a preferred vendor, a $6 million budget, and a reorganization that moved crew planning and dispatch technology under her. The board praised the speed. The COO approved the emergency spending and asked internal audit for a timeline of the system's maintenance over the previous year. Audit found that two warnings about database capacity had been logged and closed without action, that the vendor proposal was dated May, and that the system's health reports went only to the director. The reorganization went on hold, and the airline added independent monitoring of the scheduling platform.

Why it works

The fix arrives bundled with the reorganization, so granting expanded authority looks better, as if it delivers relief and improvement in one package. It looks easier because a crisis suspends tenders, cross-functional review, and board ratification. Refusing the rescuer's terms looks costlier, since every hour of normal deliberation now carries visible damage. It draws on a system whose health is opaque to oversight, a solution built in advance so it deploys faster than any rival fix, and forensics after the rescue that are weak or unwelcome.

The thinking behind it

Daniel Kahneman In The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981), Tversky and Kahneman showed that a choice framed as avoiding a loss draws riskier preferences than the same choice framed as a gain. With passengers stranded and a system down, every hour of normal review is framed as continuing loss, so leaders accept a sweeping package they would scrutinize in calm times. Separating the fix from the reorganization restores a frame where the reorganization is a gain to be weighed.

Robert B. Cialdini Cialdini's Influence (1984) describes reciprocity: people feel obliged to repay what others give them, including favors they did not ask for. A rescuer who restores the operation overnight creates that obligation, and the reorganization arrives as the expected repayment. Asking the forensic question with the same energy as the thanks separates the debt from the reward.

Warning signs

One operator surfaces the failure and has a full remediation plan, vendor list, and reorganization proposal ready within hours or days. Health reports for the failed system went only to that operator. Documents for the fix predate the failure. The rescue comes with an expansion of authority, and nobody asks why the system failed on that person's watch, because asking seems ungrateful.

How to defend yourself

Thank the rescuer, and ask the forensic question with the same energy. A timeline of the failure does most of the work. If it is clean, the rescuer's standing rises and the reorganization can proceed on its merits. If it is not, you have separated the relief from the reward before the reward became permanent.

  • Approve what the emergency needs and hold the reorganization for a separate decision.
  • Ask internal audit, an outside technologist, or a forensic accountant for a timeline: warnings logged, actions taken, and when the fix was drafted.
  • Ask who could see the system's health before the failure.

How a leader shuts it down

Install independent monitoring of any system one operator controls, and give a forensic function authority to review every crisis that was resolved unusually fast. Never let emergency approval of a fix carry approval of a reorganization with it. Make asking why something failed on someone's watch as normal as thanking them.

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