Works
- Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art to 1980, Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, 1982
In Thinking Tools
Known for
Coauthor, with Sarah Lichtenstein and Baruch Fischhoff, of the standard review of probability calibration, which found that people are generally overconfident, that their stated probabilities run higher than their hit rates, and that feedback and training can reduce the gap.