From the system dynamics of Jay W. Forrester (Industrial Dynamics, 1961), codified by Jorgen Randers (Guidelines for Model Conceptualization, 1980) and John D. Sterman (Business Dynamics, 2000).
Plots how the key variables have actually behaved over time, and how they might behave under different policies, before any model is built.
When to reach for it
At the start of a modeling or analysis effort, before the team has agreed on which behavior over time it is trying to explain.
How it runs
- Choose the variables that matter most.
- Plot each one's history.
- Name the pattern: growth, decline, oscillation, S-shape, or overshoot.
- Sketch the expected future under current and alternative policies.
- Treat the plots as targets any model must reproduce.
Where it sits in SOLVE eX
Go to the source
- Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, 2000
- Guidelines for Model Conceptualization, Elements of the System Dynamics Method, 1980
- Industrial Dynamics, 1961