Thinking Tools
Thinking tools for every step of working a problem, from describing the situation to following up on the solution, each credited to the people who devised it. Each name opens a page with what the tool does, when to reach for it, how it runs, and where to read the original. Search, or filter by step, form, group size, time, or originator.
Form
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328 of 328 tools
Each row gives the tool's forms and the people it is credited to (or its tradition); the name opens its page.
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State
25 tools1.1 Describing the Situation
A coherent narrative of the current state.
Customer Journey Mapping
Traces a customer's experience across every stage and touchpoint, recording actions, thoughts, feelings, and pain points, to find friction that internal process views miss.
CanvasWorkflowStickdorn, Schneider, ShostackBack of the Napkin
Matches the kind of question a problem poses (who, how much, where, when, how, or why) to one of six simple pictures, then sketches it to think and to explain.
DrawingQuestionsMatrixRoamConcept Map
Arranges the ideas in a subject from general to specific and joins them with arrows labeled by relationship, producing a picture of how the pieces fit together.
DrawingNovakJohari Window
A two-by-two grid of what a person knows about themselves against what others know, showing where feedback and disclosure would widen the shared picture.
MatrixLuft, InghamPhenomenological Analysis
Describes what an experience is like for the people living it, setting theories and explanations aside until the structure of the experience is down on paper.
WorkflowQuestionsHusserl, Merleau-Ponty, GiorgiBlueprint Optimization Framework
Takes a promising idea through its pros and cons, a go or no-go check, fixes for its drawbacks, borrowings from other ideas, and a path to implementation.
CanvasWorkflowFoucar-Szocki, Shepard, Firestien, Isaksen, Treffinger, Osborn, Parnes, Pugh, de BonoCritical Question Mapping
Generates questions in place of answers, sorts them by breadth and likely impact, and arranges the strongest into a ladder from the widest question to the most specific.
QuestionsWorkflowMatrixRothstein, Santana, Roland, Gregersen
1.2 Writing the Problem Statement
One-sentence compression of the problem.
Audit of Current Resources
A row-by-row audit of nine kinds of resource an actor controls, from money and title to credibility, access, and tribe, sorting what compounds from what only spends.
MatrixCanvasThe ADAPT Loop (this site's own series)Issue Tree
Breaks a large question into branches that do not overlap and together cover it, down to pieces small enough to investigate, producing a work plan for the analysis.
WorkflowModelMinto, RasielA3 Thinking
Fits a whole problem onto one A3 sheet (background, current condition, target, root cause, countermeasures, plan, and follow-up) and revises it with peers until the reasoning holds.
CanvasWorkflowSobek, Smalley, ShookEvery Lap Comes Home Ahead
Judges each cycle of a long effort by what it hands the next one, so a run of busy rounds that spends more than it returns shows up early.
PracticeThe ADAPT Loop (this site's own series)Hohfeldian Rights Analysis
Splits the loose word right into four distinct relations (claim, privilege, power, and immunity), each matched by a position someone else holds, to show what is really at stake.
MatrixModelHohfeldSCQA
Opens a document or argument with four moves, an accepted situation, the complication that disturbs it, the question that raises, and the answer, stated up front.
PracticeWorkflowMintoHolistic Perspective Harmonizer
Restates one problem from five stances (the owner's, the affected party's, an outsider's, an opponent's, and a neutral one) and merges them into a single problem statement.
QuestionsMatrixde Bono, Grinder, DeLozier, Morgan, Osborn, Parnes
1.3 Framing the Situation
An explicit framing ("one way to look at this is...")
Frame Analysis
Identifies the frame a message calls up (the actors, the problem, and what would count as a fix) so it can be exposed, used, or replaced.
ModelQuestionsChecklistGoffman, LakoffReading Other Actors
Applies the planning questions to someone else in the situation: what they want, what they hold, and what they are watching, so a surprising outcome reads as their move.
ModelQuestionsThe ADAPT Loop (this site's own series)Assumption Audit
Walks a conclusion back down the ladder of inference and asks why at each rung, producing a list of the assumptions a position rests on.
QuestionsWorkflowArgyris, Toyoda, Senge, Kleiner, Roberts, Ross, Smith, OhnoCausal Layered Analysis
Works an issue down through four layers: the headline view, the systems behind it, the worldview that frames those systems, and the myth or metaphor underneath.
WorkflowModelInayatullahConceptual Metaphor Analysis
Identifies the hidden metaphor shaping how people talk about an issue, such as argument as war, lists what it makes easy and hard to think, and tests alternatives.
ModelQuestionsLakoff, JohnsonCynefin
Sorts a situation by how cause and effect behave (clear, complicated, complex, chaotic, or confused) and matches the way of deciding to the domain.
ModelWorkflowSnowden, Kurtz, BooneHanlon's Razor
Sets a default of reading harmful behavior as error, overload, or circumstance until evidence shows intent, which matches the response to the likely cause.
ModelHanlon, HeinleinHermeneutic Interpretation
Reads a document or practice by cycling between its parts and the whole, writing down prior assumptions and testing them, until one reading fits and its uncertainties are named.
WorkflowQuestionsSchleiermacher, Dilthey, GadamerJobs to Be Done
Treats customers as hiring a product to make progress in a particular situation, with functional, emotional, and social jobs, so competitors and innovations are defined by the job.
ModelWorkflowChristensen, Ulwick, LevittPerspective Pivot Workshop
Restates a problem through a fixed set of lenses, among them opportunity, time, stakeholder, contrarian, scale, and risk, to test whether the right problem is on the table.
MatrixQuestionsMorgan, VanGundy, Osborn, de Bono, Wedell-Wedellsborg
Objective
14 tools2.1 Finding the Reasons to Resolve
Why this matters to the user.
Planning Funnel
Narrows a vague want through six layers, actor, agenda, interest, objective, goal, and target, until the person who must move is named and the likeliest misread is located.
WorkflowThe ADAPT Loop (this site's own series)Change Talk
Listens for a person's own statements of desire, ability, reasons, need, commitment, activation, and steps taken toward change, and draws each one out further.
WorkflowModelMiller, Rollnick, AmrheinMotivational Interviewing
A conversation method that draws out a person's own reasons to change through open questions, affirmations, reflections, and summaries, then builds on them until a plan emerges.
QuestionsWorkflowMiller, RollnickSo-What Laddering
Asks "so what?" of a finding, then of the answer, and again, climbing from observation to implication to an action the audience can take.
WorkflowModelMinto, RasielPrioritized Purpose Planner
Writes each reason for solving a problem as a to-plus-verb purpose, ranks them, and builds the top one into a goal with three to five sub-goals.
WorkflowQuestionsCanvasNadler, Hibino, Miles, de Bono
2.2 Writing the Goal Statement
A coherent statement of the desired outcome.
Bloom's Taxonomy
Ranks what someone should be able to do with knowledge, from remembering through understanding, applying, analyzing, and evaluating to creating, so goals and tests aim at the intended level.
ChecklistDrawingBloom, Anderson, KrathwohlMiracle Question
Asks someone to imagine the problem solved overnight without their knowing, then to describe what they would notice first, turning a stuck complaint into a concrete picture of the goal.
Questionsde Shazer, BergOKRs
Sets a few qualitative objectives, each with three to five measurable key results, shares them openly across the organization, and grades them every quarter.
WorkflowCanvasGroveCollective Objective Builder
Alternates group and individual rounds to agree why a problem matters, write the shared goal, check it against the wider mission, and line personal aims up with it.
WorkflowQuestionsSenge, Gordon, Prince, Osborn, Parnes, Drucker
2.3 Establishing the Requirements
Non-negotiable criteria for any acceptable outcome.
Interest-Based Bargaining
Separates what each side demands from why it wants it, then builds options that serve both sides' underlying interests, chosen by fair standards both accept.
ModelQuestionsWorkflowFollett, Walton, McKersie, Fisher, UryConstraint Satisfaction
Lists every condition a solution must meet, separates hard limits from preferences, maps what is feasible, and only then looks for the best option within it.
WorkflowModelMontanari, Mackworth, TsangFactor of Safety
Sizes capacity as a multiple of the expected load, with the multiple set by how bad a failure would be and how uncertain the estimates are.
ModelEngineering design practice, written into structural and mechanical design codes from the mid-1800s onward; the phrase is first recorded in the 1850s, no single person is credited with the convention, and Wilhelm Albert's 1837 chain tests concern fatigue rather than the factor itself.Inversion
Turns a goal around to ask how it would fail, lists those failure modes, and treats each one as a rule to avoid.
ModelWorkflowMungerPriority-Based Requirements Matrix
Grades every requirement on a four-level scale, from mandatory through top priority and low priority to not required, so the must-haves stand apart from the wish list.
MatrixClegg, Kepner, Tregoe
Learn
72 tools3.1 Finding the Current Facts
Snapshot of the present state.
Customer Discovery
Tests whether a problem is real and who has it through many interviews about past behavior, patterns across users, and requests for commitment before anything is built.
WorkflowModelBlank, Ries, FitzpatrickEmpathy Map
A one-page canvas that sorts research notes on a customer into what they say, think, do, and feel, making the gaps between stated and actual behavior visible.
CanvasQuestionsGray, Brown, MacanufoMom Test
Customer conversations built on three rules: talk about their life, ask about specific past behavior, and listen more than talk, so that politeness cannot pass for evidence.
WorkflowPracticeFitzpatrickSWOT Analysis
Sorts a unit's internal strengths and weaknesses against its external opportunities and threats, then crosses the four lists to produce strategic options.
CanvasWorkflowHumphrey, Learned, Christensen, Andrews, Guth, WeihrichBalance Sheet Thinking
Reads a business or decision through its stocks of assets, obligations, and equity alongside its flows, catching structural risks an income-only view misses.
ModelMatrixPacioli, Brealey, Myers, AllenBig Five Inventory
Profiles a person on five continuous traits, openness, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism, giving a tested vocabulary for how people differ at work.
QuestionsRubricTupes, Christal, Goldberg, John, Donahue, Kentle, Costa, McCrae, SotoCash vs Accrual Reasoning
Compares when cash actually moves with when revenue and costs are booked, and treats the gap between the two as the first place to look for trouble.
ModelSchilitCulture Map
Places national business cultures on eight scales, from how people give feedback to how they schedule, showing where colleagues from two cultures are most likely to misread each other.
ModelMatrixQuestionsMeyerFermi Estimation
Estimates an unknown quantity within an order of magnitude by breaking it into a chain of factors, guessing each, and multiplying them.
WorkflowModelFermiHierarchy of Evidence
Ranks kinds of evidence from pooled randomized trials at the top to expert opinion at the bottom, so competing claims are weighed by how well their support rules out confounding.
ModelDrawingSackett, Rosenberg, Gray, Haynes, RichardsonHofstede's Cultural Dimensions
Compares national cultures on six dimensions, including power distance, individualism, and uncertainty avoidance, to anticipate where working norms will clash.
ModelMatrixQuestionsHofstede, Minkov, BondTheoretical Saturation
Sets a stopping rule for gathering cases: keep going until several new cases in a row add no new category or property.
ModelWorkflowGlaser, StraussThick Description
Records what people do together with what their actions mean inside their own setting, producing an account an outsider can read and act on.
WorkflowPracticeGeertz, RyleTufte's Data Display Principles
A set of rules for charts and tables (spend ink on data, cut decoration, use small multiples, put words beside numbers) that make a display answer its question.
ModelChecklistTufteHolistic Perspective Toolkit
Works through a deep set of who, what, where, when, why, and how questions about a situation, in present, past, or future tense, so no angle is missed.
QuestionsKipling, Hermagoras, Cicero, Osborn, Parnes
3.2 Finding the Past Facts
Historical context.
Chain of Custody
Keeps an unbroken log of everyone who handled a piece of evidence, with what they did, when, and where, so findings can show the evidence is unaltered.
WorkflowChecklistKent, Chevalier, Grance, DangControl Chart
Plots a measure over time against limits set from its own stable history, separating routine noise from signals that deserve investigation.
DrawingWorkflowShewhartHistorical Periodization
Cuts the history of an organization or market into a few named eras at defensible turning points, showing what changed, what carried over, and whether a new era has started.
WorkflowModelBraudel, Petrarch, VoltaireHysteresis
Recognizes when a system's state depends on the history that produced it, so reversing the cause will not reverse the effect.
ModelEwing, Phelps, Blanchard, SummersPath Dependence Analysis
Traces how an early, partly accidental choice became locked in through network effects, learning, and switching costs, and estimates what it would take to break free.
WorkflowModelDavid, Arthur, NorthPattern Recognition
Turns experts' instant reads of a situation into explicit templates, each with its cues, its label, the dynamics to expect, and the move that works, so others can learn them.
WorkflowModelChase, Simon, Klein, Calderwood, Clinton-Cirocco, MacGregorReasoning from Precedent
Decides a new case by finding earlier cases with similar facts, taking the rule each settled, and either applying it or showing why the facts differ.
ModelWorkflowQuestionsLevi, LlewellynReference Mode Analysis
Plots how the key variables have actually behaved over time, and how they might behave under different policies, before any model is built.
WorkflowDrawingSterman, Randers, ForresterCausal Chain Breaker
Traces a problem's chain of causes back step by step and marks the first link within reach, so action lands where the solver has the power to act.
WorkflowMatrixToyoda, Ohno, Heinrich, Gano
3.3 Mapping the System Around the Problem
How the system around the decision works.
Causal Loop Diagram
Links the variables in a situation with arrows marked same or opposite direction, then names the reinforcing and balancing loops that drive its behavior over time.
ModelWorkflowForrester, Maruyama, Senge, MeadowsInfluence Sociogram
Draws people as points and influence as arrows, then reads the picture for the hubs, brokers, and outliers who actually move opinion on a given question.
DrawingMoreno, Krackhardt, Hanson, Cross, ParkerNetwork Centrality Analysis
Measures where each person sits in a web of working ties (degree, betweenness, closeness, and eigenvector centrality) to find the connectors, brokers, and bottlenecks an org chart hides.
WorkflowDrawingModelBavelas, Freeman, Bonacich, Wasserman, Faust, Cross, Parker, Borgatti, Mehra, Brass, LabiancaPower-Interest Grid
Plots stakeholders by their power over an initiative and their interest in it, then gives each quadrant an approach: manage closely, keep satisfied, keep informed, or monitor.
MatrixMendelow, Johnson, Scholes, Eden, AckermannAccidental Adversaries
Describes how two allies each make moves that make sense locally but undercut the other, read the shortfall as bad faith, and pull back further.
ModelKemeny, Kim, AndersonAgency Theory
Analyzes any arrangement where one party acts for another, naming where their goals split, what the agent knows that the principal cannot see, and what oversight costs.
ModelQuestionsJensen, Meckling, Ross, Berle, MeansCenter of Gravity Analysis
Finds the element a competitor, organization, or plan depends on for its strength, then its weak supports, so effort goes where it will be decisive.
ModelQuestionsvon Clausewitz, StrangeEcosystem Thinking
Treats a market as a web of interdependent firms with roles such as keystone, dominator, and niche player, so strategy weighs the health of the network a firm depends on.
ModelDrawingMoore, Iansiti, LevienEroding Goals
Describes how a gap between target and performance closes by lowering the target, with performance unchanged, so standards slip a little at a time.
ModelSenge, Kim, Anderson, StermanEscalation Archetype
Describes two parties who each answer a perceived threat with a countermove that raises the threat to the other, so the contest ratchets upward.
ModelSenge, Kim, AndersonEvolutionary Reasoning
Tests whether variation, selection, and retention are at work among ideas, products, or firms, and if so reads their features as the work of selection pressure.
ModelDarwin, Campbell, Nelson, Winter, Dawkins, Dennett, Mesoudi, PageFunction Analysis
Maps a product, service, or process as components joined by the functions they perform, tagging each function useful, harmful, too weak, or excessive to show where value leaks.
DrawingMiles, MannGroup Model Building
Builds a system dynamics model in facilitated workshops with the people who must act on it, producing a shared model and shared understanding together.
WorkflowVennix, Richardson, AndersenMcKinsey 7S Framework
Checks an organization's alignment across strategy, structure, systems, shared values, style, staff, and skills, and produces a list of gaps between its current and required state.
CanvasDrawingWaterman, Peters, Phillips, Pascale, AthosNetwork Effects
Explains markets where each user gains as more users join, which is why scale compounds and many platform markets settle on one or two winners.
ModelRohlfs, Katz, Shapiro, Metcalfe, Varian, VailNine Windows
A three-by-three grid that places a problem in its past, present, and future at three scales (part, system, and surroundings), exposing constraints and resources usually missed.
MatrixAltshullerPorter's Five Forces
Rates an industry's rivalry, entry threat, substitutes, supplier power, and buyer power to show where competitive pressure comes from and how much profit the structure allows.
WorkflowCanvasPorterQueueing Theory
Models waiting lines from arrival rates, service rates, and server counts to predict waits, queue lengths, and utilization, showing how waits explode as utilization nears full.
WorkflowModelErlang, Kendall, Kleinrock, Hillier, LiebermanSECI Model
Sorts how knowledge moves in an organization into four conversions between tacit and explicit forms, showing which conversion a knowledge system is missing.
MatrixWorkflowNonaka, Takeuchi, PolanyiService Blueprint
Maps a service in layers, from what the customer does and sees through frontstage and backstage staff actions to support systems, showing how hidden work produces the experience.
CanvasWorkflowShostack, Stickdorn, SchneiderStock-and-Flow Models
Represents a system as quantities that accumulate and the rates that fill or drain them, then simulates the model forward to show behavior over time.
WorkflowModelForrester, Meadows, Meadows, Randers, BehrensSuccess to the Successful
Describes how two efforts competing for one resource drift apart because the early leader keeps winning the allocation, so the gap comes from the rule more than from merit.
ModelSenge, StermanTheory of Constraints
Raises a system's output by finding its one binding bottleneck, keeping it busy, pacing everything else to it, expanding it, and then finding the next.
WorkflowModelGoldrattTragedy of the Commons
Explains how open access to a shared, limited resource leads each user to take more, since each gains fully while the cost is spread, until the resource degrades.
ModelLloyd, Hardin, OstromValue Stream Mapping
Draws the whole flow of material and information from customer order back to raw input, separating time that adds value from waiting, moving, and rework.
DrawingRother, ShookHolistic Systems Mapper
Maps the process at the center of a problem, its inputs and immediate elements, related processes, outside influences, and feedback loops, so a local fix fits the whole.
DrawingWorkflowRummler, Brache, Deming
3.4 Facts About the Future
Trends, projections, scenarios.
Monte Carlo Simulation
Runs a model thousands of times with inputs drawn at random from their likely ranges, producing the spread of possible outcomes and the odds of each.
WorkflowUlam, von Neumann, MetropolisPESTEL Analysis
Scans the outside environment across political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal forces, and ranks the ones most likely to affect the question at hand.
CanvasChecklistModelAguilarPolak Game
Has a group stand on two axes in a room (is the future getting better or worse, and can we shape it) to show which disagreements come from different outlooks.
GameDrawingHayward, Candy, PolakScenario Planning
Builds a small set of distinct, internally consistent futures from the two most uncertain forces, then tests a strategy against each of them.
WorkflowMatrixKahn, Wack, SchwartzCross-Impact Analysis
Builds a matrix of how each possible future event would raise or lower the odds of every other, then simulates the combinations to show which joint scenarios are likely.
MatrixGordon, Helmer, HaywardDesign Fiction
Builds artifacts from a possible future, such as a product manual, an advertisement, or a news item, so a speculative future becomes concrete enough to argue about.
PracticeWorkflowSterling, Bleecker, Johnson, Dunne, RabyFutures Triangle
Maps three forces on a future-facing issue (the weight of history, the push of the present, and the pull of the future) to show which force is winning.
CanvasDrawingInayatullahHype Cycle
Places a technology on a curve from trigger through inflated expectations, disillusionment, and gradual enlightenment to a productive plateau, to time investment and expectations.
DrawingModelFenn, RaskinoLindy Effect
Estimates the remaining life of a non-perishable thing, such as an idea, method, or technology, from how long it has already lasted.
ModelGoldman, Mandelbrot, TalebOutside View
Sets the details of the case aside and asks how similar cases have turned out, anchoring a forecast on that record before adjusting.
ModelKahneman, Tversky, LovalloPower-Law Reasoning
Assumes a few extreme cases dominate the total until the data shows otherwise, so averages, ranges, and risk limits are not built on a bell curve that does not fit.
ModelPareto, Mandelbrot, Newman, TalebPrediction Markets
Lets people trade contracts that pay out if a defined event happens, so the trading price becomes a running estimate of the event's probability.
WorkflowGameForsythe, Nelson, Neumann, Wright, Hanson, Wolfers, ZitzewitzRed Queen Effect
Explains why, among rivals who keep improving, a firm that stops adapting loses ground even as its own capability holds steady, and treats improvement as a standing cost.
ModelVan Valen, Barnett, HansenReference Class Forecasting
Starts any forecast from how a class of similar past cases actually turned out, then adjusts only for differences that have evidence behind them.
ModelWorkflowKahneman, Tversky, Lovallo, FlyvbjergReference Class Forecasting
Forecasts cost, time, or odds by starting from the actual results of a set of similar past projects and adjusting only modestly for what makes this one different.
WorkflowModelKahneman, Tversky, Lovallo, FlyvbjergSuperforecasting
A set of forecasting habits (base rates first, questions broken into parts, many viewpoints, numeric probabilities, and frequent small updates) that measurably improves forecasts.
WorkflowPracticeTetlock, GardnerTechnology S-Curve
Plots a technology's performance against effort or time to place it on its S-shaped curve, and spots the successor rising before the incumbent tops out.
DrawingModelFoster, Christensen, AltshullerThree Horizons
Maps three patterns running at once (the dominant system in decline, the emerging one that could replace it, and the contested transition between them) to decide where to invest.
CanvasWorkflowSharpe, Hodgson, CurryWardley Map
Plots the components behind a user need by visibility and by how far each has evolved toward commodity, showing what to build, buy, or outsource.
CanvasWorkflowWardleyWisdom of Crowds Estimate
Collects independent estimates from a varied group and takes the median, which often beats any single expert's guess because individual errors cancel out.
WorkflowModelGalton, Surowiecki, PageWords of Estimative Probability
A fixed vocabulary that ties each probability word, from almost certain to almost certainly not, to a numeric range, so writer and reader mean the same odds.
RubricModelKentHorizon Explorer
A bank of strategic questions asked through three lenses (possible, probable, and preferred futures) so planning weighs several futures instead of a single prediction.
QuestionsAmara, Hancock, Bezold, Voros, Aguilar
Vision
78 tools4.1 Root Causes and the Case for Going Back
The gap-explaining causes.
Bradford Hill Criteria
Weighs an observed link between an exposure and an outcome against nine tests, from strength and consistency to timing and dose response, to judge whether it is causal.
ChecklistModelHillFive Whys
Asks why a problem happened, then asks why again of each answer, producing a short chain that ends at a cause in the process worth fixing.
QuestionsWorkflowToyoda, OhnoFogg Behavior Model
Holds that a behavior happens when motivation, ability, and a prompt meet at the same moment, so the dependable fixes are making the action easier and the prompt reliable.
ModelWorkflowFoggOccam's Razor
Prefers the explanation that needs the fewest added assumptions when competing explanations fit the evidence equally well.
ModelWilliamAbductive Reasoning
Works back from a surprising fact to the explanation that would best account for it, ranking several candidates and testing the leader before acting on it.
WorkflowQuestionsPeirce, Harman, LiptonCausal Diagram
Maps assumed causes as a directed graph of variables and arrows, showing which factors to control for, which to leave alone, and whether an effect can be estimated at all.
DrawingWorkflowPearl, WrightCOM-B Model
Explains a behavior as the product of capability, opportunity, and motivation, finds which of the three is lacking, and aims the intervention at that gap.
ModelCanvasMichie, van Stralen, WestCounterfactual Reasoning
Tests whether something caused an outcome by changing that one factor in an imagined version of events and tracing what would have followed.
WorkflowQuestionsLewis, Stalnaker, PearlDifferential Diagnosis
Lists every plausible cause of a symptom, flags the common and the dangerous ones, then gathers the evidence that separates them until one explanation is strong enough to act on.
WorkflowQuestionsDrawingCabot, Weed, CroskerryDMAIC
Runs a process improvement through five stages (define, measure, analyze, improve, control), ending with monitoring that keeps the gain from slipping back.
WorkflowModelSmith, HarryDrama Triangle
Maps recurring conflict as three roles (victim, persecutor, and rescuer) that people rotate through, so each can see their part and step out of it.
ModelDrawingKarpmanFeedback Delay Analysis
Finds the time lags in a feedback loop that make sensible responses overshoot and swing, and points to fixes such as shorter delays, gentler responses, or acting on leading signals.
WorkflowModelForrester, Sterman, MeadowsFishbone Diagram
Lays out the possible causes of a defect or failure on branches by category, such as method, machine, material, and people, so no family of causes is skipped.
DrawingModelIshikawaForce Field Analysis
Lists the forces pushing toward a change and those holding it back, scores each, and points the effort at weakening the strongest restraints.
DrawingMatrixLewinGrowth and Underinvestment
Describes how growth strains capacity, service slips, demand softens, and the firm reads the softening as a market ceiling and underinvests, locking in the limit.
ModelForrester, Senge, StermanIceberg Model
Reads a problem at four levels: the visible event, the pattern it belongs to, the structures producing the pattern, and the beliefs that keep those structures in place.
DrawingSenge, GoodmanLimits to Growth
Describes a reinforcing growth loop that runs into a balancing limit, so growth slows or reverses, and pushing harder on growth only reaches the limit sooner.
ModelDrawingSenge, Meadows, Meadows, Randers, BehrensMaslow's Hierarchy of Needs
Ranks human needs from survival and safety up through belonging and esteem to self-actualization, and shows which unmet level is most likely driving behavior now.
ModelDrawingMaslow, Bridgman, Cummings, BallardMill's Methods
Compares cases with and without an effect using five set patterns, agreement, difference, the two combined, residues, and concomitant variation, to narrow down its likely cause.
WorkflowMillPareto Principle
Ranks causes, customers, or problems by their share of an outcome to find the few that drive most of it, often near an 80/20 split.
ModelPareto, JuranShifting the Burden
Describes how a fast symptomatic fix keeps getting used in place of a slow fundamental one, while the ability to make the real fix withers.
ModelSenge, Kim, StermanTheory of Constraints Thinking Processes
A set of five logic diagrams that trace many symptoms back to one core conflict, resolve it, and lay out the path to the future state.
DrawingWorkflowGoldratt, DettmerFOCUS Ideation
Lays out five columns, foundation, objective, constraints, understanding, and strategy, so a team moves from the current state through each obstacle to strategies that address it.
ModelCanvasWorkflowOsborn, Parnes, Rother
4.2 Expansive Idea Formation
A broad inventory of options.
Blue Ocean Strategy Canvas
Plots the factors an industry competes on and each rival's level on them, then uses eliminate, reduce, raise, and create to draw a value curve unlike any rival's.
CanvasWorkflowKim, MauborgneMind Mapping
Places one topic at the center of a page and grows branches and sub-branches for related ideas, producing notes laid out the way the ideas connect.
DrawingBuzanSCAMPER
Runs an existing product, process, or idea through seven prompts (substitute, combine, adapt, modify, put to other uses, eliminate, and reverse) to produce many variants.
QuestionsWorkflowEberle, OsbornSix Thinking Hats
A group thinks in one mode at a time (facts, feelings, risks, benefits, new ideas, and process), each marked by a colored hat, so argument gives way to parallel thinking.
WorkflowQuestionsde BonoAnsoff Matrix
Sorts growth options into four boxes by whether the product and the market are existing or new, each box carrying a different level of risk.
MatrixAnsoffAttribute Listing
Lists every attribute of a product, service, or process, then varies each attribute in turn to generate new versions in an orderly sweep.
WorkflowChecklistCrawfordBiomimicry
Restates a design problem as a function, finds living things that already perform it, and translates their mechanism into a design.
WorkflowModelBenyus, SchmittBrainwriting 6-3-5
Has six people each write three ideas in five minutes, then pass their sheets on to build on one another's ideas, producing a large pool in about thirty minutes.
WorkflowRohrbachCombinatorial Enumeration
Counts and lists every combination in a decision or test space, using multiplication, permutations, and combinations, so no case is missed and the size of the space is known.
WorkflowPascal, Bernoulli, EulerCreative Constraints
Imposes deliberate limits on materials, words, parts, or time to force focus, rule out weak options, and surface approaches an open brief misses.
WorkflowModelStokes, Queneau, Le LionnaisFirst Principles Thinking
Strips a problem down to the constraints that physics, economics, or logic truly impose, then designs a solution from those constraints alone.
WorkflowAristotle, DescartesIdeal Final Result
Pictures the function delivered with no system at all, then works back toward that ideal to find designs that use existing resources or remove the need entirely.
ModelAltshuller, MannLateral Thinking
Uses set provocations (a random word, a deliberate impossibility, a negated assumption, a dropped concept, or a reversed goal) to shift thinking off its usual track.
ModelQuestionsWorkflowde BonoLeverage Points
Ranks the places to intervene in a system, from adjusting numbers up through rules, goals, and mindsets, showing which changes matter most.
ChecklistModelMeadowsMorphological Analysis
Breaks a problem into its dimensions, lists the possible values of each, and examines the combinations so that no workable configuration goes unseen.
MatrixWorkflowZwicky, RitcheyNominal Group Technique
Runs a meeting through silent idea writing, round-robin sharing, clarifying discussion, and private ranking, producing a prioritized list that every member had an equal hand in.
WorkflowDelbecq, Van de Ven, GustafsonSize-Time-Cost Operator
Pushes a design's size, time, or cost to zero and then to infinity in imagination, exposing hidden assumptions and resources that point to a way through a contradiction.
ModelWorkflowAltshullerStructure-Mapping Analogy
Borrows the pattern of relationships from a well-understood field and maps it onto a problem, generating ideas and showing where the analogy breaks.
MatrixWorkflowGentner, Holyoak, Thagard, Hofstadter, SanderSynectics
Group problem solving that uses four kinds of analogy (direct, personal, symbolic, and fantasy) to step outside the problem, then forces the analogies back into proposals.
WorkflowQuestionsGordon, PrinceTRIZ
Recasts an engineering problem as a contradiction between two parameters and points to the inventive principles that resolved the same contradiction in patents across industries.
WorkflowQuestionsAltshuller, ShapiroTRIZ Inventive Principles
A list of forty recurring solution patterns, such as segmentation, asymmetry, and prior action, drawn from patents and used as prompts to resolve a design contradiction.
ChecklistQuestionsAltshullerWallas's Four Stages of Creativity
A four-stage model of creative work (preparation, incubation, illumination, and verification) that counts stepping away from a fully loaded problem as part of the work.
WorkflowModelWallasWorld Café
Breaks a large group into small tables that rotate through a sequence of questions, with a host at each table carrying ideas between rounds.
WorkflowBrown, IsaacsYes, And
A collaboration rule: accept each offer and add to it, holding back the reflex to block, judge, or redirect, so ideas build on one another.
PracticeModelJohnstone, Halpern, Del Close, JohnsonCollective Idea Explorer
Has each person write ideas on cards, passes the cards around anonymously for others to build on, sorts the results into themes, and scores each for feasibility and originality.
WorkflowRohrbach, Geschka, Schaude, Schlicksupp, Osborn, Kawakita
4.3 Crafting Solutions for the Future State
Solutions that account for second-order effects.
Game Theory
Lays out a strategic situation as players, the moves open to each, and their payoffs, then finds the stable outcomes and asks whether the game itself could be changed.
ModelQuestionsWorkflowvon Neumann, Morgenstern, Nash, SchellingNash Equilibrium
Finds the outcomes where no player can do better by changing course alone, predicting where competing choices will settle even when everyone would prefer another result.
ModelMatrixWorkflowNashSignaling Games
Explains how one party conveys hidden quality through an action too costly for a weaker party to copy, and how the other side reads such signals.
ModelWorkflowSpence, OsborneAntifragility
Classifies a system or position as harmed, unaffected, or improved by shocks, and points to exposures with limited downside and open upside.
ModelWorkflowTalebBackcasting
Defines the end state that must be reached, measures today's gap from it, lays milestones backward from that future, and screens each near-term move against it.
WorkflowModelRobèrt, Holmberg, RobinsonBackward Induction
Solves a sequence of moves by starting at the final choices and working back, picking each player's best move, to find the path rational players will take.
Workflowvon Neumann, Morgenstern, Kuhn, SeltenFixes That Fail
Describes how a fix relieves a symptom now but triggers a delayed side effect that brings the problem back worse, the delay hiding the link.
ModelSenge, StermanFutures Wheel
Places a trend or decision at the center of a page and rings it with first-order consequences, then their consequences, working outward to expose ripple effects.
DrawingCanvasGlenn, GordonMechanism Design
Starts from the outcome wanted and works back to rules, payoffs, and information flows under which people pursuing their own interest produce it.
WorkflowModelHurwicz, Maskin, MyersonMoral Hazard Analysis
Identifies where one party is shielded from the cost of its own risky choices, predicts the extra risk it will take, and designs terms that restore the cost.
ModelQuestionsArrow, Pauly, HolmströmMoral Imagination
Pictures the specific people a decision touches, other framings, and consequences nobody planned for, so ethical issues hidden by a numbers-only view come into sight.
ModelPracticeQuestionsSmith, Burke, Johnson, WerhaneRepeated Games
Shows how cooperation can hold between self-interested parties who expect to deal again, because the threat of future punishment outweighs a one-time gain from cheating.
ModelAumann, Friedman, Fudenberg, Maskin, OsborneSchelling Points
Identifies the outcome people will converge on without talking, because it stands out by precedent, prominence, or shared expectation, to predict and shape coordination.
ModelSchellingSecond-Order Thinking
Follows an action past its first effect to the reactions and consequences that follow, including how competitors, customers, and regulators will adjust.
ModelWorkflowMarks, Bastiat, HazlittSTRIDE Threat Modeling
Checks each part of a system against six threat types, spoofing, tampering, repudiation, information disclosure, denial of service, and elevation of privilege, and produces a ranked threat list.
ChecklistModelKohnfelder, Garg, Howard, LeBlanc, ShostackSun Tzu's Principles of Strategy
Favors position, surprise, and the indirect approach over head-on contest: know both sides, avoid strength, strike weakness, and win before the fight begins.
ModelQuestionsTzu, Griffith, McNeillyTail-Risk Hedging
Protects against rare catastrophes by paying a small, steady cost for positions or arrangements that pay off heavily in disaster, then checks they hold when everything fails together.
ModelWorkflowTaleb, SpitznagelThought Experiments
Builds a minimal imagined scenario that isolates one question, stripping out confounding detail, so the answer exposes the principle or assumption behind a view.
WorkflowQuestionsØrsted, Mach, Sorensen, GendlerTipping Points
Spots systems where each choice depends on what others choose, so nothing seems to happen until a threshold is crossed and then change comes fast.
ModelGrodzins, Schelling, Granovetter, GladwellTit for Tat
Cooperates on the first move and then copies the other side's last move, a clear and forgiving rule that sustains cooperation in repeated dealings.
ModelRapoport, AxelrodDelphi Forecasts and Predictions
Runs anonymous questionnaires through several rounds, feeding each round's summarized answers and reasons back to the experts, until their forecasts converge.
WorkflowQuestionsHelmer, Dalkey, Gordon, Linstone, Turoff, Delbecq, Van de Ven
4.4 Refining Ideas Into Practical Solutions
Sharpened, combined, or hybrid options.
Affinity Diagram
Groups a large pile of notes, ideas, or observations by similarity from the bottom up, naming the themes only after the clusters settle.
WorkflowDrawingKawakitaBarbell Strategy
Puts most resources in very safe positions and a small share in high-upside bets with capped losses, while avoiding the middle that carries risk without protection or upside.
ModelWorkflowTalebCritical Response Process
A four-stage feedback protocol: responders say what was meaningful, the maker asks questions, responders ask neutral questions, and opinions come only with the maker's permission.
WorkflowQuestionsLerman, BorstelDialectical Mapping
Diagrams a contested question as a thesis and its antithesis, each with its strongest arguments, the counterarguments, and the replies, to see where a synthesis might lie.
DrawingWorkflowHegel, van Eemeren, Grootendorst, Nussbaum, Schraw, Niu, NesbitMarketing Mix
Lays out a market offer as four linked decisions (product, price, place, and promotion) and checks that each one fits the others and the customer segment.
CanvasChecklistCulliton, Borden, McCarthy, KotlerOstrom's Design Principles
Eight conditions, from clear boundaries and fitting rules to graduated sanctions and nested governance, that long-lived shared-resource arrangements tend to meet and failed ones tend to miss.
ChecklistQuestionsModelOstromSeparation Principles
Resolves a requirement that something be two opposite things at once by separating the demands in time, in space, in scale, or by condition.
ChecklistModelAltshuller, MannTRIZ Trimming
Removes a component from a product, process, or organization by handing its function to something already present, cutting cost and complexity while keeping the function.
WorkflowMannDesign Critique
Runs feedback on work in progress in fixed turns, the maker stating intent and questions, then each reviewer describing, diagnosing, and suggesting, producing usable critique without ego fights.
WorkflowQuestionsSchön, Connor, Irizarry
Evaluate
54 tools5.1 Defining the Evaluation Criteria
The criteria the user will judge options against.
BATNA and ZOPA
Before a negotiation, pins down the best deal available without this counterparty, estimates theirs, and finds the range both sides prefer to walking away.
ModelQuestionsFisher, Ury, RaiffaDecision Matrix
Scores each option on the outcome pushed for and on the fallback if it fails, each by benefit, cost, and net value, weighing upside against the cost of failure.
MatrixThe ADAPT Loop (this site's own series)Burden of Proof Analysis
Asks two questions of any disputed claim: who has to prove it, and to what standard, so the argument centers on what must be shown.
ModelQuestionsWigmore, McCormickCompounding
Judges options by their effect on a rate that repeats over many cycles, since small differences in rate grow into large differences in outcome.
ModelMunger, BernoulliConsequentialism
Judges an action by its outcomes, listing everyone affected, estimating gains and harms with their odds, and comparing the totals across options.
ModelQuestionsBentham, Mill, AnscombeConstruct Validity
Tests whether a measure captures the concept it is named for by checking its content, what it predicts, what it agrees with, and what it should not track.
WorkflowQuestionsCronbach, Meehl, Campbell, FiskeEthical Matrix
Lays out stakeholders as rows and ethical concerns (rights, interests, harms, fairness, and voice) as columns, so every effect of a decision is written down.
MatrixQuestionsCanvasMepham, FreemanGoodhart-Aware Metric Selection
Before a number is tied to pay, promotion, or budget, predicts how people will game it and adds counterweights so the metric keeps tracking the result that matters.
WorkflowModelGoodhart, Strathern, Manheim, GarrabrantOpportunity Cost Reasoning
Values a choice against the best other use of the same money, time, or people, with that alternative named and estimated.
ModelBastiat, von Wieser, GreenPersonas
Builds a few composite customers from real research, each with goals, frustrations, and habits, picks one as primary, and tests decisions against what that person would make of them.
CanvasCooper, Pruitt, AdlinVeil of Ignorance
Tests a policy or rule by asking whether it would be accepted by someone who did not know which position they would occupy under it.
ModelQuestionsRawls, HarsanyiEffort Justification Meter
Each team member scores a running project on ten questions from 1 to 10, and the averaged scores drive a call to continue, postpone, or halt.
RubricChecklistCooper, Slevin, Pinto, Aronson, Mills
5.2 Selecting the Right Decision Tools
The chosen evaluation method (matrix, tree, etc.)
Analytic Hierarchy Process
Turns pairwise comparisons on a one to nine scale into weights for criteria and scores for options, and flags contradictory judgments with a consistency ratio.
MatrixWorkflowSaatyBet vs Workhorse Discrimination
Reads each scored option by its downside: a bet pairs a brilliant upside with an unrecoverable fallback, a workhorse a modest upside with a survivable, repeatable one.
ModelThe ADAPT Loop (this site's own series)Capability Gate
Before a move goes out into the world, asks plainly whether the resources it requires are held now; the answer is yes, rescope, or go get them first.
ChecklistDrawingThe ADAPT Loop (this site's own series)Decision Tree Analysis
Draws the choices and chance events of a decision as branches, puts a probability and value on each, and rolls them back to compare options by expected value.
DrawingWorkflowvon Neumann, Morgenstern, Raiffa, Schlaifer, HowardKepner-Tregoe Method
Splits a tangled management situation into four separate processes, situation appraisal, problem analysis, decision analysis, and potential problem analysis, each with its own steps.
WorkflowMatrixKepner, TregoeMutual Gains Approach
A five-step negotiation process (prepare, create value, distribute value, follow through, and learn) in which parties invent joint options before anyone claims a share.
WorkflowModelQuestionsSusskind, Cruikshank, Field, Fisher, UryWeighted Decision Matrix
Scores each option against weighted criteria and sums the results into a ranking, with a variant that rates options better, same, or worse than a baseline.
MatrixRubricKepner, Tregoe, Pugh, Churchman, Ackoff, FranklinBinary Criteria Screen
Scores each option pass or fail against a few disqualifying criteria and keeps only the options that pass every one, with no weights and no totals.
WorkflowMatrixKepner, Tregoe, PughCapital Allocation
Compares the expected returns and risks of every use of available capital (reinvestment, acquisitions, debt repayment, dividends, buybacks, or cash) and funds the best first.
ModelRubricWorkflowThorndike, Buffett, Brealey, MyersCasuistry
Reasons about a hard moral case by comparing it with clear cases whose verdicts nobody disputes, building judgment from cases upward.
ModelWorkflowQuestionsJonsen, ToulminIBIS
Maps a deliberation as questions, candidate answers, and the arguments for and against each, so the question is named first and the reasoning outlasts the meeting.
DrawingWorkflowKunz, Rittel, Conklin, BegemanLinear Programming
Writes an allocation problem as a linear objective under linear constraints and solves for the best mix, along with what loosening each constraint is worth.
WorkflowDantzig, KantorovichMarginal Analysis
Weighs what one more unit of staff, spending, or output would cost against what it would return, and stops adding where cost overtakes return.
ModelGossen, Jevons, Menger, Walras, MarshallMediation Style Selection
Matches the mediator's style to the dispute: transformative when the relationship needs repair, facilitative when parties can solve it with help, and evaluative when they need a neutral read.
ModelDrawingRiskin, Bush, Folger, MoorePlus, Minus, Interesting
Lists the pluses, minuses, and merely interesting points of an option, each in a short timed burst, before anyone passes judgment on it.
ChecklistWorkflowde BonoQuadratic Voting
Gives each voter a budget of credits to spread across issues, where casting several votes on one issue costs the square of their number, so strength of preference counts.
RubricWorkflowHylland, Zeckhauser, Weyl, Lalley, PosnerReal Options Analysis
Values the right to expand, delay, shrink, switch, or abandon an investment later as uncertainty clears, which a standard discounted cash flow tends to miss.
WorkflowModelMyers, Trigeorgis, Copeland, Antikarov, Black, ScholesRecognition-Primed Decision
Describes how experts decide under time pressure: recognize the situation as a familiar type, picture the usual response playing out, and act if it works.
ModelWorkflowKlein, Calderwood, Clinton-CiroccoShapley Value
Divides the value a group creates by averaging each member's added contribution across every order in which the group could have formed.
WorkflowShapleyConversation Convergence Process
Two people take turns stating a view while the other restates it until the speaker confirms it, then chart what they agree and still disagree on.
QuestionsRogers, Markman, Stanley, BlumbergCritical Consensus Constructor
Moves a group through structured stages, from exploring disagreement to checking agreement, toward the best decision everyone can commit to, without requiring unanimity.
QuestionsWorkflowHall, Scholtes, Doyle, Straus, ButlerEase-Impact Assessment Matrix
Places each option on a three by three grid of impact against ease, scoring the cells one to nine, so the easy, high-impact options show up first.
MatrixThe impact versus effort (ease) matrix of lean, Six Sigma, and facilitation practice, which has no single originator; the PICK chart (Possible, Implement, Challenge, Kill) is Lockheed Martin's named four-cell variant.
5.3 Validating Impact and Execution
Gut-check, second-order, reversibility check.
Disciplined Hold
When the resources an action needs are missing, holds position on purpose, neither forcing the move nor dropping the aim, while the support underneath is rebuilt for the next cycle.
PracticeThe ADAPT Loop (this site's own series)One-Way and Two-Way Doors
Sorts a decision by whether it can be undone at reasonable cost, then gives reversible calls a fast, delegated process and irreversible ones a slow, senior one.
ModelWorkflowBezosPremortem
Before launch, has each team member privately imagine the project has already failed and write why, then pools the stories to expose risks that enthusiasm was hiding.
WorkflowKlein, Mitchell, Russo, Pennington, KahnemanRed Teaming
Gives an independent team the mandate to attack a plan, defense, or set of assumptions, and turns what it finds into revisions before anything is committed.
WorkflowZenko, HoffmanCircle of Competence
Draws an honest line around what a person or firm understands well enough to judge, then keeps high-stakes decisions inside it or limits the exposure outside.
ModelBuffett, MungerCognitive Bias Checklist
Runs a proposed decision through a set list of questions about common biases, such as anchoring and overconfidence, before anyone signs off.
QuestionsWorkflowKahneman, Lovallo, SibonyContractualism
Tests a rule or policy by asking whether anyone it affects could reasonably reject it, and treats a principle that survives every such objection as justified to all.
ModelQuestionsScanlon, RawlsConvexity Reasoning
Reads a commitment by the shape of its payoff: convex when gains grow faster than losses under volatility, concave when the reverse holds.
ModelTaleb, JensenDeontology
Judges an action by the duties and rules it keeps or breaks, testing whether its principle could apply to everyone and whether it uses anyone merely as a means.
ModelQuestionsKant, RossMurder Board
Puts a single brief, estimate, or plan in front of a panel chosen to question it hard, so every weak point surfaces in rehearsal before the real audience sees it.
QuestionsWorkflowUnited States military and government briefing rehearsal practice: the term is Pentagon usage (William Safire traced it there in 1987), NASA credits Hans Mark, who ran its Ames center from 1969 to 1977, with building it out of the tiger team, and no book or author codified it.Sensitivity Analysis
Varies each input of a model across its plausible range to show which few assumptions move the answer, where the recommendation flips, and how wide the real range is.
MatrixDrawingCharnes, Cooper, Metropolis, Ulam, HertzSkin in the Game
Weighs advice and forecasts by what the source loses if wrong, discounts claims made at no cost, and builds personal stakes into decisions.
ModelTalebSunk Cost Reasoning
Sets aside everything already spent and asks one question: from today, does continuing return more than the best alternative?
ModelThaler, Arkes, BlumerThinking in Bets
Treats each decision as a bet on an uncertain future, with a stated probability, so the quality of the decision is judged apart from how things turned out.
ModelWorkflowDukeToulmin Model
Breaks an argument into claim, data, warrant, backing, qualifier, and rebuttal, showing exactly which link is weak or missing.
QuestionsDrawingToulminWind Tunneling
Runs an existing strategy through each of a set of scenarios to see where it holds, where it fails, and what change would make it hold across all of them.
Workflowvan der HeijdenConstructive Contrarian Guide
Assigns an experienced member to challenge a group's leading proposal with grounded critique, so a major decision is tested before commitment.
QuestionsCosier, Schwenk, Schweiger, Sandberg, Ragan, Garvin, Roberto, Janis, MasonHeads-or-Tails Gut-Check
Assigns two options to the sides of a coin, flips it, and reads the reaction to the result as the preference that analysis could not surface.
ModelHein, Jaffé, Reutner, Greifeneder
Execute
73 tools6.1 Designing and Testing the Solution
Pilot, prototype, or low-cost experiment.
Escalation
When a plan stalls for want of a resource, opens a smaller campaign for that resource, keeps a written stack of open cycles, and resumes the parent when it closes.
WorkflowModelThe Lam System for Political Interaction (this site's own series)Auction Design
Sets the rules for how bidders compete (open or sealed, ascending or descending, first price or second), so bids reveal true value and resist collusion.
WorkflowDrawingVickrey, Myerson, Milgrom, Wilson, KlempererBehavior Change Wheel
Diagnoses a behavior problem as a gap in capability, opportunity, or motivation, then links that gap to the intervention types and policy levers able to close it.
CanvasDrawingMichie, van Stralen, West, AtkinsDesign of Experiments
Varies several factors together in a structured pattern, with replication and randomization, to learn in few runs how each factor and their interactions move an outcome.
WorkflowMatrixFisher, Box, Hunter, HunterFailure Mode and Effects Analysis
Lists the ways each part or step can fail, scores each failure for severity, likelihood, and detectability, and ranks the fixes by the combined score.
MatrixWorkflowMcDermott, Mikulak, BeauregardFalsifiability Test
Pairs every claim with the specific observation that would prove it wrong, then sets a date for the test, exposing beliefs that cannot fail and sharpening those that can.
ModelQuestionsPopperForcing Function
Builds the desired action into the structure of the work, so the right step becomes unavoidable or the wrong one impossible, without relying on memory or willpower.
ModelNormanGamification
Applies game mechanics such as progress, status, scarcity, surprise, and meaning to ordinary work or customer activity, matching each mechanic to the motive behind the behavior.
GameWorkflowChou, Werbach, Hunter, McGonigal, Deci, RyanHazard and Operability Study
Walks a process design node by node, applying guide words such as no, more, less, and reverse to each parameter to find deviations, their causes, and their consequences.
MatrixWorkflowLawley, KletzHick's Law
States that decision time rises with the logarithm of the number of choices, so every added option slows people down and degrades their choices.
ModelHick, HymanJidoka
Builds a process to stop itself the moment something abnormal appears, so each defect is fixed at its source before it flows downstream.
ModelToyoda, Ohno, LikerPDCA Cycle
A four-step loop that plans a change with a predicted result, tries it small, checks the outcome against the prediction, and then adopts, adjusts, or drops it.
WorkflowModelShewhart, DemingPoka-Yoke
Designs physical or procedural constraints so an error cannot be made, or is caught the moment it happens, before it becomes a defect.
ModelWorkflowShingoPre-Registered Predictions
Writes down the hypothesis, prediction, data, and decision rule before results arrive, and time-stamps the record so hindsight cannot rewrite what was expected.
WorkflowPracticeTetlockRandomized Controlled Trial
Assigns units at random to a change or a control, measures an outcome fixed in advance, and estimates whether the change caused the difference.
WorkflowBacon, Mill, Fisher, Kohavi, Tang, XuToyota Kata
Pairs a routine for working toward a target condition through small experiments with five standard coaching questions a manager asks daily to build the habit.
WorkflowPracticeRotherProxemics
Studies how people use space and distance with one another, and how the layout of a room or building shapes the conversations and behavior inside it.
ModelQuestionsHallExperimental Innovation Cycle
Runs innovation as a loop: set a goal, name what must be learned, form a hypothesis, design and run a small test, read the result, and choose the next move.
WorkflowShewhart, Deming, Langley, Nolan, Thomke, Davenport, Ries
6.2 Creating an Action Plan
Concrete time-bound plan.
Crossing the Chasm
Names the gap between enthusiastic early adopters and the pragmatic majority, and crosses it by winning one narrow segment completely before expanding to its neighbors.
ModelMatrixWorkflowMoore, RogersEisenhower Matrix
Sorts tasks into four boxes by urgency and importance, and sets a different response for each: do, schedule, hand off, or drop.
CanvasModelEisenhower, Covey, Merrill, MerrillCoalition Mapping
Lists everyone whose backing a decision needs, rates each from champion to opponent, notes what would move each one, and orders the conversations accordingly.
WorkflowMatrixBeckhard, Harris, KotterComparative Advantage
Assigns each task to whoever gives up the least to do it, which lets both parties gain even when one is better at everything.
ModelRicardo, TorrensCritical Path Method
Finds the longest run of dependent tasks, which sets a project's earliest possible finish, and in the Critical Chain version swaps padded task estimates for shared buffers.
WorkflowModelKelley, Walker, GoldrattHoshin Kanri
Turns a few breakthrough objectives set at the top into each level's own contribution through back-and-forth negotiation, then reviews progress monthly over a yearly cycle.
WorkflowMatrixAkaoImplementation Intentions
Turns a goal into if-then plans (when a named situation arises, a set action follows) so the cue triggers the action without a fresh decision in the moment.
ModelWorkflowGollwitzer, SheeranMeans-Ends Analysis
A solving loop that compares where things stand with where they should be, picks the biggest difference, applies an action that shrinks it, and repeats.
WorkflowNewell, Shaw, SimonRevising Mid-Cycle
Changes a maneuver's aim partway through when a different interest now serves the same agenda better, without letting what is already spent argue for staying the course.
ModelThe Lam System for Political Interaction (this site's own series)Layered Actions Breakdown
Asks how a goal will be achieved, then how each answer will be carried out, three to five levels down, until every branch ends in a concrete action.
WorkflowToyoda, Ohno
6.3 Implementing the Action Plan
Execution.
Hero's Journey
A story template in which a protagonist leaves the familiar, meets an ordeal that changes them, and returns with something of value, used to shape change and brand narratives.
PracticeWorkflowCampbell, VoglerPerception Gap Audit
After a move, records what was expected, what actually happened by outside evidence, and what the actor believes was gained, then names the gap between the last two.
ChecklistQuestionsThe ADAPT Loop (this site's own series)Persona Shifting
Takes on the viewpoint of one named reader, their role, prior beliefs, mood, and awareness of the problem, before drafting, so a message starts where that reader is.
ModelQuestionsWorkflowSchwartz, Cooper, UryStoryBrand
A seven-part message template that casts the customer as the hero and the company as the guide, then spells out the problem, plan, call to action, stakes, and success.
PracticeWorkflowCanvasMillerTactical Empathy
Lowers a counterpart's defenses by naming their emotions, mirroring their last words, and asking open how and what questions, then uses the opening to surface their interests.
WorkflowQuestionsVossAccusation Audit
Lists every negative thing the other side might think or say, then states each one aloud at the start of the conversation, before they can.
ChecklistModelVossAIDA
Orders a persuasive message into four stages (attention, interest, desire, and action) and checks that none is missing.
WorkflowModelLewis, RussellAristotelian Rhetoric
Checks a persuasive message on three appeals (credibility, feeling, and argument), names which kind of speech the audience needs, and settles the earlier point of dispute first.
ModelQuestionsChecklistAristotle, HermagorasCalibrated Questions
Replaces yes-or-no and why questions with open how and what questions, which set the other side working on the problem with less defensiveness.
QuestionsVossCialdini's Principles of Influence
Seven principles (reciprocity, commitment, social proof, liking, authority, scarcity, and unity) used as a checklist to plan honest persuasion and to recognize pressure tactics.
ChecklistModelCialdiniCode-Switching
Shifts vocabulary, register, depth, and references to suit each audience so the same substance is heard intact by engineers, executives, finance, or frontline staff.
ModelQuestionsWorkflowBlom, Gumperz, Myers-ScottonCognitive Apprenticeship
Teaches judgment-heavy skills by having an expert think aloud while working, coaching the learner's attempts, adding scaffolds, asking for explanations, comparing approaches, and then withdrawing support.
WorkflowModelCollins, Brown, Newman, HolumCrucial Conversations
A method for conversations with high stakes, opposing views, and strong emotions: secure mutual purpose and respect, separate facts from stories, and speak tentatively while inviting challenge.
WorkflowModelPatterson, Grenny, McMillan, SwitzlerDEAR MAN
Structures a request in seven parts, describe the facts, express feelings, assert the ask, reinforce the benefit, stay mindful, appear confident, and negotiate, so the ask lands cleanly.
WorkflowModelLinehanDeliberate Practice
Improves a skill through goals set just past current ability, full focus, immediate feedback, and repeated refinement, often with a coach, so practice keeps producing gains.
WorkflowModelEricsson, Krampe, Tesch-Römer, PoolDifficult Conversations
Treats a hard conversation as three at once (what happened, what each side feels, and what it means for each identity) and shifts the aim from persuading to learning.
WorkflowModelStone, Patton, HeenExpected-to-Actual Gap
Reads a result that landed much bigger or smaller than intended as a sign that another actor amplified or dampened the move, then names that actor and their interest.
ModelQuestionsThe ADAPT Loop (this site's own series)Getting Things Done
A personal system that captures every commitment outside the head, decides the next action for each, and keeps the lists current through a weekly review.
WorkflowAllenKanban Method
Puts work on a board of stages, caps how many items each stage may hold, and pulls new work only when capacity frees up, exposing bottlenecks.
DrawingWorkflowAnderson, OhnoMemetics
Treats ideas, phrases, and practices as units that copy themselves from person to person, and asks why some spread and last while others fade.
ModelDawkins, Dennett, Blackmore, ShifmanMise en Place
Sets out every material, tool, and step before work begins, so the arrangement of the workspace carries the plan and attention stays on execution.
WorkflowPracticeEscoffier, Charnas, ForteOODA Loop
Runs decisions as a continuous cycle of observe, orient, decide, and act, and treats cycling faster and with better orientation than a rival as the source of advantage.
WorkflowModelBoyd, RichardsPyramid Principle
Structures a memo, deck, or recommendation with the conclusion first, then grouped supporting points, each group summarizing the ideas beneath it in logical order.
WorkflowModelMintoStatus Work
Improvisation exercises in which people play high and low status on purpose, showing how every gesture and pause shifts power in an exchange.
GamePracticeJohnstoneTrust Equation
Scores trustworthiness as credibility plus reliability plus intimacy, divided by self-orientation, which shows which factor is holding a relationship back.
ModelWorkflowMaister, Green, GalfordZone of Proximal Development
Locates the band between what a learner can do alone and what they can do with skilled help, where support teaches the most.
ModelVygotsky, Wood, Bruner, RossKairos Timing
Separates the calendar signal (the schedule says act) from the moment signal (conditions, the counterparty, and the actor are ready) and forces a deliberate choice when they disagree.
ModelQuestionsSmith, KinneavyImpact-Focused Problem Approach
Splits a problem into parts, rates each part's impact, and works the highest-impact part first, then the next, so progress shows early.
WorkflowMatrixJuran, Lee, Covey, Weick
6.4 Conducting Follow-Up and Taking Feedback
Post-action review.
After-Action Review
A short team review held right after an action: what was meant to happen, what did, why the two differed, and what to change, with rank left at the door.
WorkflowSullivan, HarperReflective Practice
Builds a practitioner's judgment through two habits, reviewing cases after the fact and noticing during the work, which grows a repertoire of cases to draw on.
QuestionsPracticeSchönAnomaly Detection
Makes three choices explicit for any watched measure, the normal baseline, the threshold for different enough, and who acts when it fires, producing early warning of real shifts.
WorkflowChecklistShewhart, Chandola, Banerjee, KumarArchitecture Decision Records
Records each significant decision in a short numbered note giving its context, the choice made, and its consequences, stored beside the work it governs.
PracticeWorkflowNygardBlameless Postmortem
Reviews an incident on the premise that people acted reasonably on what they knew, so the account surfaces system and process causes and produces owned action items.
WorkflowQuestionsAllspaw, Dekker, Beyer, Jones, Petoff, MurphyBrier Score
Scores probability forecasts by the squared gap between the stated chance and what happened, rewarding honest calibration and splitting skill into reliability and resolution.
WorkflowRubricBrier, MurphyDifference-in-Differences
Estimates the effect of a change by comparing the before and after shift in a group that got it with the shift in a similar group that did not.
WorkflowSnow, Ashenfelter, Card, Krueger, Angrist, PischkeDouble-Loop Learning
Separates fixing actions within current assumptions (single loop) from questioning the assumptions and goals themselves (double loop), and builds the conditions for the second.
ModelWorkflowArgyris, SchönKaizen
Commits everyone in an organization to small, daily improvements in their own work, with time and recognition for making them, so gains compound between big change programs.
PracticeImaiKPI Design
Pairs each result metric with the input drivers a team can move and the guardrails that must not slip, then ties a decision to every threshold.
WorkflowChecklistDrucker, Grove, Kaplan, Norton, Bryar, CarrPoker Decision Review
Rebuilds each significant decision from a session, with what was known, the options, and the reasoning, and grades the decision apart from how it turned out.
WorkflowDukeProblem-Solution-Result
Tells a piece of work in three beats, the problem faced, the action taken, and the measured result, so the activity reads as evidence of impact.
PracticeWorkflowByhamPropensity Score Matching
Pairs each unit that received a treatment with a similar untreated one, matched on its estimated chance of being treated, so the groups compare as if assigned at random.
WorkflowRosenbaum, RubinRegression to the Mean
Expects extreme results to be followed by less extreme ones, because part of any extreme is luck, and luck does not repeat on schedule.
ModelGalton, KahnemanRetrospective Formats
Gives a team a rotating set of reflection templates, such as Start, Stop, Continue or Sailboat, each surfacing a different side of recent work and ending in owned actions.
WorkflowQuestionsCanvasKerth, Derby, Larsen, HohmannUnlearning
Audits a firmly held belief against its actual evidence and lowers confidence to match, then adjusts the beliefs and actions that rested on it.
ModelHedberg, Nystrom, Starbuck, Argyris, SchönDynamic Feedback Mapper
A question framework for designing a feedback system: where feedback comes from, what kinds are needed, the tools, who receives it, how it is verified, and how criticism is handled.
QuestionsWorkflowJuran, Deming, Ishikawa, Edmondson, Edwards, Ewen
Any step
12 toolsBayesian Updating
Revises how likely a belief is when new evidence arrives, by weighing the starting estimate against how much more likely the evidence is if the belief is true.
WorkflowModelBayes, LaplaceCalibration Training
Drills people on questions with known answers, scoring how often their 90 percent ranges contain the truth, until stated confidence matches the actual hit rate.
PracticeWorkflowLichtenstein, Fischhoff, Phillips, Hubbard, Tetlock, GardnerChunking
Groups many details into a few labeled units, nested where needed, so whatever a reader or learner must hold at once fits in working memory.
ModelPracticeMiller, Chase, Simon, CowanCyborg Authoring
A writing routine: a person sets the outline and claims, an AI drafts sections under tight limits, and the two trade critique until a final human pass.
WorkflowQuestionsMollickMap-Territory Distinction
Treats every model, dashboard, and plan as a partial picture of reality, and asks where the picture and the ground have drifted apart.
ModelKorzybski, BatesonMethod of Loci
Places the items to remember at fixed spots along a familiar route, then recalls them by walking the route in the mind.
DrawingModelPracticeSimonides, YatesNonviolent Communication
Structures a hard conversation in four parts, a plain observation, a feeling, the need beneath it, and a specific request, so it can be heard without defensiveness.
WorkflowModelRosenbergProbabilistic Thinking
Holds beliefs as probabilities, updates them as evidence arrives, and judges a decision by the information behind it, separately from how it turned out.
ModelKahneman, Tetlock, Gardner, DukePropositional Logic
Reduces an argument to lettered statements joined by and, or, not, and if-then, then checks whether the conclusion follows from that structure alone.
WorkflowModelChrysippus, Boole, Frege, Whitehead, RussellSocratic Method
Tests a belief through layered questions about meaning, evidence, assumptions, and consequences, so the person holding it finds the gaps in their own reasoning.
QuestionsPlato, Paul, ElderSteelmanning
Builds the strongest version of an opposing argument, stronger than its own backers may have put it, and answers that version before answering anything else.
WorkflowMill, Muehlhauser, DennettZettelkasten
A note system of one idea per note, each with an ID and dense links to related notes, so a network of ideas grows over time and feeds writing.
WorkflowModelLuhmann, Ahrens