Named by Albert Goldman (Lindy's Law, 1964), restated by Benoit Mandelbrot (The Fractal Geometry of Nature, 1982), and extended by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Antifragile, 2012).
Estimates the remaining life of a non-perishable thing, such as an idea, method, or technology, from how long it has already lasted.
When to reach for it
Choosing between a long-established method or technology and a new one, when the question is which will still matter in ten years.
How it runs
- Decide whether the thing ages like a body or like an idea.
- For ideas, methods, and technologies, note how long it has lasted.
- Expect a remaining life roughly in proportion.
- Weight bets toward the long-lived option unless evidence says otherwise.
Where it sits in SOLVE eX
Go to the source
- Lindy's Law, The New Republic, 1964
- The Fractal Geometry of Nature, 1982
- Antifragile, 2012