Developed by Herman Kahn (The Year 2000, with Anthony J. Wiener, 1967), Pierre Wack at Shell (Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead, 1985), and Peter Schwartz (The Art of the Long View, 1991).
Builds a small set of distinct, internally consistent futures from the two most uncertain forces, then tests a strategy against each of them.
When to reach for it
Planning depends on a future nobody can forecast with confidence, and the organization is betting everything on one version of it.
How it runs
- Set the focal question and the time horizon.
- List the forces that will shape the answer.
- Rank them by impact and by uncertainty.
- Cross the two most uncertain, high-impact forces into four futures.
- Write each future as a coherent story.
- Test the strategy in each and note early warning signs.
Where it sits in SOLVE eX
Go to the source
- The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation, 1967
- Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead, Harvard Business Review, 1985
- The Art of the Long View, 1991