Developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky (Intuitive Prediction: Biases and Corrective Procedures, 1979) and named by Daniel Kahneman and Dan Lovallo (Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts, 1993).
Sets the details of the case aside and asks how similar cases have turned out, anchoring a forecast on that record before adjusting.
When to reach for it
Cost, schedule, or success estimates rest on the team's confidence in its own plan, and nobody has checked how similar projects actually went.
How it runs
- Notice when an estimate rests on the case's own details.
- Name the class of similar cases.
- Find how that class has turned out.
- Anchor the estimate on that record.
- Adjust only for differences backed by evidence.
Where it sits in SOLVE eX
Go to the source
- Intuitive Prediction: Biases and Corrective Procedures, TIMS Studies in Management Science, 1979
- Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking, Management Science, 1993