A worksheet for envisioning possible, probable, and preferred futures, and deciding how to shape the one you want.
Builds on Roy Amara's possible, probable, and preferable futures (Institute for the Future; The Futurist, 1981), checks the preferred future against the other two as the futures cone does (Trevor Hancock and Clement Bezold, 1994; Joseph Voros, 2003), and fills its question bank the way Francis J. Aguilar's environmental scan does (Scanning the Business Environment, 1967, the root of PEST and STEEP).
What it is for
Futures Thinking is a proactive way to envision various scenarios for the future, allowing for strategic planning and action today. It's not about predicting what will happen, but about considering different possibilities and deciding on the best course of action to shape a desired outcome. Three Perspectives on the Future:
- Possible Futures. Envision all potential outcomes, from the ordinary to the extraordinary, that could feasibly happen.
- Probable Future. Focus on the most likely future based on current trends and the assumption that not much will change.
- Preferred Future. Imagine the ideal future, the one you would want to strive for. This optimistic outlook can inspire innovative ideas and major advances.
Why use it
By regularly contemplating these questions, you or your organization can better prepare for the future, making informed decisions that steer toward success.
How to use it
The concept of "Futures Thinking" is a strategic approach to prepare for the uncertainties of what's ahead. Answer these questions and explore a wide range of future possibilities without limiting your imagination.
Twenty-three questions about the future, starting with three lenses
Pick a time horizon before you start (a year, three years, or ten) and hold it for every answer, since the questions leave the future undated. Begin with the three lenses, then tick the questions that fit and copy them, or let the figure pick three.
1 question picked0 questions picked
CopiedCould not copy- Preferred future. What do I prefer to happen? Is that answer in the list of "possible futures" or "probable futures" or not on either list?
- Preferred future. What do I prefer to happen? Is that answer in the list of "possible futures" or "probable futures" or not on either list?
- Preferred future. What do I prefer to happen? Is that answer in the list of "possible futures" or "probable futures" or not on either list?
Three lenses
- Answer this first, before reading any trend.
Challenges, opportunities, and rivals
Customers
Goals and certainties
The ideal future
The scan
Where it fits
The process recommends it at Facts About the Future, the last step of the Learn phase. Despite its name it is not the Three Horizons method, which the inventory carries on its own.
Related tools
- Scenario Planning (Kahn, Wack, and Schwartz)
- PESTEL Analysis (Aguilar)
- Three Horizons (Sharpe, Hodgson, and Curry)
- Backcasting (Robert, Holmberg, and Robinson)