From the Natural Step framework of Karl-Henrik Robèrt (1989), drawing on backcasting as John B. Robinson named it (Energy Backcasting, 1982) and the earlier energy work of Amory B. Lovins (1976).
Defines the end state that must be reached, measures today's gap from it, lays milestones backward from that future, and screens each near-term move against it.
When to reach for it
A plan that has to start from a fixed destination, such as an emissions target or an industry shift, because current trends lead somewhere unacceptable.
How it runs
- Define the future state in precise terms and principles.
- Compare today's position with it and list the gaps.
- Work backward to the milestones the path must pass.
- Pick present actions that move toward the first milestone.
- Test each action for direction, flexibility, and return.
- Monitor progress and redraw the path as understanding improves.
Where it sits in SOLVE eX
- 4.3 Crafting Solutions for the Future State
- 2.2 Writing the Goal Statement
- 6.2 Creating an Action Plan
Go to the source
- The Natural Step framework, founded in Sweden; The Natural Step Story, New Society Publishers, 2002, 1989
- Backcasting from Non-Overlapping Sustainability Principles: A Framework for Strategic Planning, International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology (John Holmberg and Karl-Henrik Robèrt), 2000
- Energy Backcasting: A Proposed Method of Policy Analysis, Energy Policy, 1982
- Energy Strategy: The Road Not Taken?, Foreign Affairs, 1976