A tool to harness the collective intelligence of experts to generate accurate forecasts and strategic plans for the future.
Adapted from the Delphi method (Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey, RAND Corporation, 1963; forecasting rounds after Theodore J. Gordon and Olaf Helmer, 1964), following the procedure set out by Harold A. Linstone and Murray Turoff (The Delphi Method, 1975) and in Jib Fowles's Handbook of Futures Research (1978), with an optional closing meeting after the Nominal Group Technique (André L. Delbecq and Andrew H. Van de Ven, 1971).
What it is for
The purpose of the Delphi Forecasts and Predictions thinking tool is to harness the collective intelligence of experts to generate accurate forecasts and strategic plans for the future. The Delphi technique is especially useful when direct knowledge is dispersed and the subject matter is complex or involves uncertainty. It aims to achieve a convergence of opinion on future events or outcomes, relying on the iterative gathering of expert judgments.
The anonymity of participants reduces the influence of authority, reputation, or personality on the group's predictions, allowing for unbiased information exchange. The process encourages independent thinking and gradual consensus, taking advantage of diverse expert insights without the pressure of conformity or groupthink.
This tool is structured around multiple rounds of questionnaires, where experts provide their forecasts, assumptions, and reasoning. Their responses are collected, summarized, and shared with the group in subsequent rounds. This iterative feedback is designed to refine and evolve the group's forecasts toward a more accurate prediction, culminating in a final report that represents the collective judgment of the experts involved.
The multi-round approach, combined with the ability to revise opinions based on aggregated group responses, distinguishes the Delphi method from other forecasting techniques and contributes to its effectiveness in yielding reliable and nuanced insights into future scenarios.
Why use it
The Delphi technique is a method developed to improve group predictions by gathering the opinions of experts who do not know each other's identities. It's like a bigger version of brainstorming where experts share their thoughts on what might happen in the future. These thoughts are sent to a coordinator, who shares them with the group to refine the ideas and reach a common prediction.
How to use it
This technique involves asking experts for their opinions in several rounds of questioning. The key elements of this process are: keeping the experts anonymous if needed, showing their opinions in a way that uses numbers or statistics, and sharing the reasons behind their opinions with the group.
The five phases of a Delphi forecast
From preparing the panel to the final report. Select a phase to see who acts in it and what they do.
Prepare
- Who acts
- The coordinating team
- What happens
- (a) Define the subject/topic that needs a forecast or a strategic plan. (b) Form a Delphi coordinating team to monitor the process and summarize results. (c) Select an anonymous Delphi respondent group. Customarily, respondents are experts in the area to be forecasted. (d) Prepare a Round 1 questionnaire that will elicit forecast responses.
Round 1
- Who acts
- The respondents, then the team
- What happens
- (a) Distribute the first round questionnaire. Ask respondents to forecast their key assumptions, and major issues affecting the subject under consideration, including constraints, contingencies, regulatory and institutional issues, etc. (b) Sort and organize questionnaire results grouping similar forecast responses. Develop a summary of responses to be issued back into the participant pool. Some careful editing can be done to produce a clear report; however, caution should be exercised to retain minority opinions.
Round 2
- Who acts
- The respondents, then the team
- What happens
- (a) In this round, respondents are asked to rank the probability of occurrence of Round 1 forecast and add new forecasts. (b) Round 2 questionnaires are summarized with group probability averages tabulated for each forecasted item. Any new assumptions, comments, or questions are added to the Round 2 report.
Round 3 or Meeting Round
- Who acts
- The respondents
- What happens
- (a) Repeat Round 2 until you have reached consensus from respondents. Or (b) consider doing a face-to-face meeting or conference call round. At this session, participants will dialogue the final round report and prioritize their final forecast and predictions.
Final Report
- Who acts
- The monitoring team
- What happens
- The Delphi monitoring team prepares a summary report of the conclusions developed during the exercise formulated as a technical forecast and distributed to participants.
The questionnaires
The first questionnaire sets the topic to predict and the questions each expert answers; the second returns a summary of the forecasts for each expert to rate and extend.
The Round 1 questionnaire
The questions each expert answers in the first round, with the topic to predict set at the top. Tick the ones you will use and copy them into your questionnaire.
1 question picked0 questions picked
CopiedCould not copyQuestions for Round 1
Topic to predict: describe the topic whose future state is to be predicted. Each expert writes a forecast or prediction against every question.
The Round 2 sheet, and every round after it
One line per respondent in each box: the summary of their Round 1 forecast, its probability of occurrence, and any further thoughts. Copy the canvas when you are done; nothing is saved.
Summary of Responses from Round 1
Respondent 1 to Respondent N forecast/prediction.
Probability of Occurrence
0% to 100% for each forecast.
Additional Forecast Thoughts or Idea
Additional thoughts here.
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Where it fits
The process recommends it at Crafting Solutions for the Future State, the third step of the Vision phase, where it is the one tool named for looking ahead. The Delphi technique also appears among the decision tools of Selecting the Right Decision Tools.
Related tools
Within this series, Horizon Explorer looks at the same future through possible, probable, and preferable lenses.
- Scenario Planning (Kahn, Wack, and Schwartz)
- Cross-Impact Analysis (Gordon, Helmer, and Hayward)
- Nominal Group Technique (Delbecq, Van de Ven, and Gustafson)
- Superforecasting (Tetlock and Gardner)