Developed by Theodore J. Gordon and Olaf Helmer for the Kaiser Aluminum Future game (1966), and first tested by Gordon and H. Hayward (Initial Experiments with the Cross Impact Matrix Method of Forecasting, 1968).
Builds a matrix of how each possible future event would raise or lower the odds of every other, then simulates the combinations to show which joint scenarios are likely.
When to reach for it
When forecasting or scenario work involves events that plausibly affect one another, and treating them as independent would mislead.
How it runs
- List the future events of interest.
- Estimate each event's probability on its own.
- For each pair, estimate how one shifts the other.
- Assemble the estimates into the cross-impact matrix.
- Simulate many runs to get the odds of joint scenarios.
- Pick out the scenarios that stay likely.
Where it sits in SOLVE eX
Go to the source
- Cross-impact matrix method, developed for the Kaiser Aluminum Future game, 1966
- Initial Experiments with the Cross Impact Matrix Method of Forecasting, Futures 1(2), 1968