Developed by Richard N. Foster (Innovation: The Attacker's Advantage, 1986), with roots in Genrich Altshuller's laws of technical evolution (Creativity as an Exact Science, 1979) and extended by Clayton M. Christensen (The Innovator's Dilemma, 1997).
Plots a technology's performance against effort or time to place it on its S-shaped curve, and spots the successor rising before the incumbent tops out.
When to reach for it
Investment, product, or platform decisions hinge on whether the current technology still has room to improve or is reaching its limit.
How it runs
- Pick the technology and the performance measure that matters.
- Plot past performance against cumulative investment or time.
- Judge where on the curve it now sits.
- Identify candidate successors and plot their early curves.
- Time the switch before the old curve flattens.
Where it sits in SOLVE eX
Go to the source
- Innovation: The Attacker's Advantage, 1986
- Creativity as an Exact Science, 1979
- The Innovator's Dilemma, 1997