Developed by Philip E. Tetlock and written up with Dan Gardner (Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, 2015).
A set of forecasting habits (base rates first, questions broken into parts, many viewpoints, numeric probabilities, and frequent small updates) that measurably improves forecasts.
When to reach for it
When a decision rests on a forecast, such as a market shift, an adoption timeline, or a completion date, and a calibrated probability matters.
How it runs
- Frame a question with a date and a clear resolution rule.
- Start from the base rate of a reference class.
- Break the question into the parts that decide it.
- Adjust for what makes this case different.
- State a number, then update in small steps as evidence arrives.
Where it sits in SOLVE eX
Go to the source
- Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, 2015