Originated by Jerome C. Glenn (Futurizing Teaching vs Futures Course, 1972), documented with Theodore J. Gordon (Futures Research Methodology, 2009).
Places a trend or decision at the center of a page and rings it with first-order consequences, then their consequences, working outward to expose ripple effects.
When to reach for it
New policies, technologies, or market shifts are coming, and the first-order effects are obvious while the knock-on effects are not.
How it runs
- Write the trend or event in the center.
- Draw six to ten direct consequences around it.
- For each, draw what it would cause in turn.
- Push one more ring out for the important ones.
- Mark the consequences that are welcome, unwelcome, or surprising.
Where it sits in SOLVE eX
Go to the source
- Futurizing Teaching vs Futures Course, Social Science Record, 1972
- Futures Research Methodology, version 3.0, The Millennium Project, 2009