Coined by Morton Grodzins (Metropolitan Segregation, 1957), modeled by Thomas C. Schelling (Dynamic Models of Segregation, 1971) and Mark Granovetter (Threshold Models of Collective Behavior, 1978), and popularized by Malcolm Gladwell (The Tipping Point, 2000).
Spots systems where each choice depends on what others choose, so nothing seems to happen until a threshold is crossed and then change comes fast.
When to reach for it
When forecasting adoption, planning a change effort, or judging whether effort spread thin will ever reach critical mass.
How it runs
- Ask whether each person's choice depends on others' choices.
- If so, assume a threshold exists.
- Estimate it from small trials or past cases.
- Concentrate effort to cross it, instead of spreading it thin.
- Watch for signs the system is nearing the tip.
Where it sits in SOLVE eX
Go to the source
- Metropolitan Segregation, Scientific American, 1957
- Dynamic Models of Segregation, Journal of Mathematical Sociology 1(2), 1971
- Threshold Models of Collective Behavior, American Journal of Sociology 83(6), 1978
- The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference, Little, Brown, 2000