Antifragility

Developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Antifragile, 2012).

Classifies a system or position as harmed, unaffected, or improved by shocks, and points to exposures with limited downside and open upside.

When to reach for it

When a plan, supply chain, portfolio, or career looks fine on average but nobody has asked what a large shock would do to it.

How it runs

1. Name the system or position under review.
2. Map its downside and its upside if shocks hit.
3. Classify it as fragile, robust, or antifragile.
4. Remove exposures with capped upside and open-ended downside.
5. Add exposures with small losses and large possible gains.
6. Let small stresses strengthen the parts that can adapt.

Where it sits in SOLVE eX

• 4.3 Crafting Solutions for the Future State
• 5.3 Validating Impact and Execution

Go to the source

• Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder, 2012