From Karl Popper (Logik der Forschung, 1935; in English as The Logic of Scientific Discovery, 1959).
Pairs every claim with the specific observation that would prove it wrong, then sets a date for the test, exposing beliefs that cannot fail and sharpening those that can.
When to reach for it
When a strategy, product bet, or bold claim is about to be acted on and nobody has said what evidence would show it is wrong.
How it runs
- State the claim with its subject and scope.
- Ask what observation would falsify it.
- If nothing would, treat it as a value, not a hypothesis.
- Sharpen vague answers into measurable criteria and a deadline.
- Commit in advance to revising if the observation appears.
- Honor the commitment when the deadline arrives.
Where it sits in SOLVE eX
Go to the source
- Logik der Forschung, Julius Springer, Vienna, released late 1934 with a 1935 imprint; English edition The Logic of Scientific Discovery, Hutchinson, 1959, 1935