From clinical trial registration (ClinicalTrials.gov, 2000), and in forecasting from Philip E. Tetlock's Good Judgment Project (2011).
Writes down the hypothesis, prediction, data, and decision rule before results arrive, and time-stamps the record so hindsight cannot rewrite what was expected.
When to reach for it
Before a test, pilot, or strategic bet starts, when the team will later want to know honestly whether it predicted the outcome.
How it runs
- Write the question, prediction, data, analysis plan, and decision rule.
- Time-stamp it with a witness or a versioned record.
- Freeze the original prediction; date any additions.
- Run the work as planned.
- Compare outcome to prediction using the plan written beforehand.
- Label unplanned findings as leads for a new test.
Where it sits in SOLVE eX
Go to the source
- ClinicalTrials.gov public trial registry, 2000
- Good Judgment Project, the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament, 2011