Developed by Kees van der Heijden (Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, 1996).
Runs an existing strategy through each of a set of scenarios to see where it holds, where it fails, and what change would make it hold across all of them.
When to reach for it
Scenarios have been built and a strategy is on the table, and leadership needs to know which futures it depends on without saying so.
How it runs
- Take the proposed strategy as written.
- Play it forward in each scenario in turn.
- Record what works, what fails, and what is exposed.
- Revise the strategy to hold up in more scenarios.
- Plan contingencies for the futures it still cannot handle.
Where it sits in SOLVE eX
Go to the source
- Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, Wiley, 1996