Developed by Annie Duke (Thinking in Bets, 2018).
Treats each decision as a bet on an uncertain future, with a stated probability, so the quality of the decision is judged apart from how things turned out.
When to reach for it
When a team confuses good outcomes with good decisions, or bad luck with bad judgment, after wins and losses alike.
How it runs
- Restate the decision as a bet: what is wagered on what.
- Write down a probability of success.
- Name the evidence that would move it.
- Decide, and record the reasoning and the probability.
- When the outcome arrives, judge the decision from the record.
Where it sits in SOLVE eX
Go to the source
- Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts, 2018