Developed by Daniel Kahneman, Dan Lovallo, and Olivier Sibony (Before You Make That Big Decision, 2011).
Runs a proposed decision through a set list of questions about common biases, such as anchoring and overconfidence, before anyone signs off.
When to reach for it
Just before a major investment, hire, or strategic bet is approved, when the people recommending it have a stake in the answer.
How it runs
- State the decision and who is recommending it.
- Pick a checklist suited to the decision type.
- Ask each question of this decision specifically.
- Mark the three to five biases most likely at work.
- Apply a matching fix: base rates, premortem, or outside review.
- Record which biases recur and adapt the list.
Where it sits in SOLVE eX
Go to the source
- Before You Make That Big Decision, Harvard Business Review, 2011