Developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Skin in the Game, 2018).
Weighs advice and forecasts by what the source loses if wrong, discounts claims made at no cost, and builds personal stakes into decisions.
When to reach for it
When choosing whose advice, forecast, or recommendation to rely on when the stakes are high, or designing incentives for the people who decide.
How it runs
- Ask what the source loses if wrong.
- Discount forecasts from people with no exposure.
- Build personal stakes for decision-makers into the design.
- Back strong predictions with a public commitment or a bet.
Where it sits in SOLVE eX
Go to the source
- Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life, 2018