Set out by Charles Sanders Peirce, who first called it hypothesis (Deduction, Induction, and Hypothesis, 1878) and later abduction, and developed as inference to the best explanation by Gilbert Harman (1965) and Peter Lipton (1991).
Works back from a surprising fact to the explanation that would best account for it, ranking several candidates and testing the leader before acting on it.
When to reach for it
When an anomaly turns up, such as an outage, a spike in churn, or a rival's odd move, and a working hypothesis is needed fast.
How it runs
- State exactly what is surprising, against what expectation.
- List at least three explanations, including dull ones.
- Note what else each explanation would predict.
- Score each on fit, prior odds, scope, simplicity, and testability.
- Run the cheapest test that separates the top two.
- Update the hypothesis and repeat.
Where it sits in SOLVE eX
Go to the source
- Deduction, Induction, and Hypothesis, Popular Science Monthly; later gathered in the Collected Papers, 1931 to 1935, 1878
- The Inference to the Best Explanation, Philosophical Review, 1965
- Inference to the Best Explanation, Routledge, 1991