From the system dynamics of Jay W. Forrester (Industrial Dynamics, 1961), shown in John D. Sterman's beer distribution game paper (Modeling Managerial Behavior, 1989), and set out by Donella H. Meadows (Thinking in Systems, 2008).
Finds the time lags in a feedback loop that make sensible responses overshoot and swing, and points to fixes such as shorter delays, gentler responses, or acting on leading signals.
When to reach for it
When doing the right thing keeps producing swings, such as inventory whipsaw, hiring booms and freezes, or prices that overshoot.
How it runs
- Name the swing or overshoot to explain.
- Map the loop from the gap, to the response, to the result.
- List the delays: learning, deciding, acting, and the system responding.
- Compare the total delay with how fast the system changes.
- Shorten a delay, slow the response, or act on leading signals.
Where it sits in SOLVE eX
Go to the source
- Industrial Dynamics, 1961
- Modeling Managerial Behavior: Misperceptions of Feedback in a Dynamic Decision Making Experiment, Management Science 35, 1989
- Thinking in Systems, 2008