Developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Antifragile, 2012), who took the name from fixed-income investing.
Puts most resources in very safe positions and a small share in high-upside bets with capped losses, while avoiding the middle that carries risk without protection or upside.
When to reach for it
Capital, time, or a portfolio of projects must be spread under deep uncertainty, and the balanced middle option looks safer than it is.
How it runs
- Name the resource being allocated.
- Classify each use as safe, moderate, or aggressive.
- Confirm the safe end truly cannot lose much.
- Confirm the aggressive bets have capped losses.
- Put most in safe, a little in aggressive, and none in between.
- Rebalance as the bets pay off or fail.
Where it sits in SOLVE eX
Go to the source
- Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder, Random House, 2012